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赛迪顾问：园区“再创业”的环境之变与路径选择_我的网站
A | 在新质生产力培育、“双碳”目标落实与产业链深度重构的驱动下，园区正从传统“产业集聚区”向“创新生态运营体”转型。面向“十五五”，园区以“再创业”精神实现从大到强的纵深突破，是把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革机遇、实现高质量发展的战略选择。
RALEIGH, N.C. – The 2024 election promises to feature several major battlegrounds, but for sheer breadth of competitive contests, North Carolina next year will be hard to beat.
It starts with the presidential race. Recent presidential contests in North Carolina have been close: In 2020, Donald Trump won North Carolina by about 74,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Experts expect a competitive race again in 2024.
In addition, a newly empowered GOP majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court is poised to redraw the congressional map to benefit Republicans, producing the possibility of competitive races.
Meanwhile, the parties will fiercely contest both chambers of the legislature, which the GOP currently controls by narrow supermajorities, thanks to a Democrat-to-Republican party-switcher in the state House earlier this year. That party switch, by state Rep. Tricia Cotham, now enables Republicans to enact a strongly conservative agenda over the vetoes of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper if they wish.
Cooper, for his part, is term-limited, teeing up a knock-down, drag-out contest to succeed him, likely between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
And that isn’t it for falling dominoes: The decisions by Stein and Robinson to seek the governorship leave their old offices of attorney general and lieutenant governor up for grabs in 2024, joining the GOP-held offices of state treasurer and labor commissioner as open-seat contests. The Democratic-held offices of secretary of state and auditor and the Republican-held offices of schools superintendent, insurance commissioner and agriculture commissioner will also be contested in 2024, with varying degrees of competitiveness.
In other words, in 2024, North Carolina will be one of the centers of the political universe – important in part because it’s a uniquely competitive state.
“There’s no telling who will win in 2024, but I’d bet half-court tickets to the UNC-Duke game that it will be close and North Carolina will retain its title as the definition of ‘purple,’” says Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist (and no relation to the governor).
In recent years, North Carolina has mostly hosted close statewide races. During the 2020 and 2022 elections, North Carolina held 16 federal and state races for statewide office – and no candidate in any of them won more than 54% of the vote.
In addition, unlike most states in this highly polarized age, North Carolina has elected a thorough mix of Democrats and Republicans to statewide executive offices, which suggests that voters in the state – or at least a crucial subset of them – are willing to split their tickets.
The Republicans have done best in Senate and presidential contests. In those races, the GOP has kept a consistent – if modest – edge. It’s been a decade and a half since a Democrat has won one of those races. The last to win were Kay Hagan for Senate and Barack Obama for president, both of them way back in 2008.
“North Carolina has proved to be a purple state, but not necessarily a swing state,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “The statewide outcomes have been among the closest in the country, but Republicans have found themselves just on the winning side of the razor’s edge for presidential and Senate elections.”
The most intriguing contrast one can draw for North Carolina is with one of its neighbors to the south. Could North Carolina follow Georgia’s path in voting blue for Senate and presidential elections?
For the better part of two decades, Georgia, like North Carolina, had voted consistently Republican in key federal races – until 2020. That year, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won uphill, and narrow, victories for Senate seats, while Biden was winning the state in the presidential race. In 2022, Warnock won another close election to a full six-year term.
In an era when urban areas have grown bluer by the year, Georgia has seen its major metro area – Atlanta – steadily move toward the Democrats. In 2000, metro Atlanta backed Republican George W. Bush by 4 points. By 2020, the Atlanta metro area backed Biden by 28 points, a whopping 32-point shift.
North Carolina’s biggest metro areas saw a similar pattern.
North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham metro area backed Gore in 2000 by less than a point. Two decades later, Biden won it by 26 points. The state’s most populous county, Wake County (which includes Raleigh and Cary), favored Bush in 2000 by about a point, but backed Biden by 27.
Similar patterns held in the North Carolina portion of the Charlotte metro area. In 2000, Bush won the Charlotte metro area by 18 points. But by 2020, Biden won the region by 4 points – a 22-point shift. The state’s second largest county, Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte), voted for Bush by almost 3 points in 2000 but Biden by a massive 36 points.
Such shifts helped the Democrats narrow the statewide gap substantially in North Carolina. In 2000, Bush defeated Gore statewide by 13 points, whereas Trump defeated Biden by about 1 point.
But these shifts weren’t enough to tip the state to the Democrats in the presidential race. A big reason why: Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte don’t have as large a footprint in North Carolina as metro Atlanta does in Georgia.
In 2020, Atlanta’s metro counties accounted for just shy of a majority of votes cast in Georgia – 49%, up from 46% in 2000. So even as outlying Georgia was growing redder – backing Bush by 19 and Trump by 26 – Democrats were able to turn a 12-point statewide loss by Al Gore in 2000 into a narrow victory for Biden in 2020.
By contrast, the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte metro areas account for a minority of the state’s voters, growing from 36% of the votes cast in 2000 to 42% in 2020.
In other words, in North Carolina, the Democratic gains in the two big metro areas were nearly canceled out by the large and growing GOP margins elsewhere.
“North Carolina has the second most rural voters in the country after Texas, so running up the score in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte won't get you victory the way Atlanta does in Georgia,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “There’s been a massive Republican gain in rural areas”
Over the next quarter-century, Wake and Mecklenburg counties are projected to grow dramatically faster in population than most other North Carolina counties, according to calculations by the state’s Board of Science, Technology & Innovation. Over the long term, this could make the state bluer.
But for now, North Carolina’s political balance of power belongs in the hands of “countrypolitan" counties, a term coined by Mac McCorkle, a longtime North Carolina consultant who now teaches at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, and Rachel Salzberg.
These 28 counties sit within the economic and commuting orbit of North Carolina’s metro areas, but they’re located on the outlying edge, and they lack the racial diversity, college attainment levels and higher incomes that increasingly align with voting Democratic.
By McCorkle’s and Salzberg’s calculations, “countrypolitan” counties backed Trump in 2020 by a gaping 63%-36% margin, and collectively they provided Trump with about 50% more raw votes than North Carolina’s 50 most rural counties did.
That’s a major reason why Republicans have remained modestly ahead in North Carolina, at least in high-profile federal races, experts say.
To do well in North Carolina, says Western Carolina’s Cooper, “Democrats don’t have to win the rural vote, but they have to avoid getting pummeled.”
This is the goal of Anderson Clayton, the newly installed head of the state Democratic Party. At 25, Clayton, an Appalachian State University graduate, is the youngest state Democratic chairman in the nation.
“One of the things that I think that I learned from being on national campaigns is that a lot of times the national party is not looking at rural places like they should be,” Anderson told an audience in Union County, according to The Washington Post. “They’re looking at it as a place of a problem. And for me, I got really frustrated with that. It was part of the thing that called me home.”
This advice doesn’t just hold for presidential and Senate races, political observers say. It will also help determine whether Democrats can stay competitive in North Carolina’s state-level offices or whether Republicans start running away with them.
Since the dawn of the 20th century, North Carolina has elected only three Republican governors – one for a term in the 1970s, one for two terms in the 1980s and 1990s, and one for a term in the 2010s.
Historically, the successful Democratic model for winning North Carolina gubernatorial races has been to nominate a candidate who can win in metro areas but who hails from less populated regions of the state and connects with voters there. A good example is the current governor, who helped his family farm tobacco while growing up.
But the pool of potential Democratic candidates from more rural areas “has dried up,” says Rob Schofield, the editor of the online publication NC Newsline. Lining up Democratic candidates to run everywhere, as Clayton seeks to do, will be challenging.
“That counts on people running even if they know they will lose and be sacrificed, which is a hard sell,” says Ferrel Guillory, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of North Carolina.
In any case, the likely 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stein, is set to break his party’s historic mold. Stein, a former legislator who has won two terms as attorney general, grew up in Chapel Hill, home of the University of North Carolina, and earned his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth and a law degree and a master’s of public affairs from Harvard.
Meanwhile, Stein’s potential Republican opponent also represents departure from past Republican gubernatorial candidates, who have tended to be economic conservatives from metro areas: Robinson is an outspoken social conservative who has flirted with conspiracy theories, ranging from the moon landing to crisis actors in school shootings.
Robinson doesn’t have a clear path to the nomination. In the primary, he faces state Treasurer Dale Folwell, former Congressman Mark Walker, former legislator Andy Wells and retired health executive Jesse Thomas. But he’s considered the front-runner, due to a strong core of support in a state where, by law, 30% plus one is enough to win a primary.
If the race comes down to Stein and Robinson, as conventional wisdom suggests, “it will be an epic and titanic battle that will be bitterly divided and deeply polarizing,” says Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College. “Probably the most expensive gubernatorial race in the nation for next year, and it may break state records.”
One unknown for now is how the Republican supermajority flexes its expanded policy muscle.
After years of opposition, the GOP legislature in March passed legislation to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, and Cooper quickly signed it. But after Cotham’s party switch produced a supermajority, Republicans sidestepped Cooper’s veto and passed a 12-week abortion ban, which is being challenged in court.
Passage of the abortion ban could energize Democrats, as it has in other purple and even red states. This could be exacerbated if the GOP passes other laws popular with the party’s socially conservative base but unpopular among moderates. Robinson’s candidacy, too, risks scaring off Republican moderates.
“When the Republicans moved to find some way to accept Medicaid expansion, to me that reflected that, wow, these guys may be understanding their rough edges,” McCorkle says in an interview. “Then the abortion law happens and then Robinson happens. That could explode things.”
John Hood, president of the John William Pope Foundation, a grant-making foundation, says he believes Republicans in the legislature are “realistic.”
“They recognize that either Stein will be governor or Robinson will be governor, and they don’t trust either,” Hood says.
Ultimately, the noise from the presidential race, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee, could drown out everything else down-ballot.
“The national networks and media may be so consumed by the presidential election that state issues may not affect the public’s mind,” Guillory says.
。 洞察：园区“再创业”面临的三重环境之变 产业逻辑从“要素驱动”转向“创新驱动”。当前，在国家创新驱动发展战略引领下，我国产业发展重心从规模扩张转向质量效益提升，高技术产业和未来产业成为重要增长极。适应新质生产力发展要求，园区加快从传统要素驱动向创新驱动转变，完成从“加工组装”到“源头创新”的核心跨越。 空间供给从“规模扩张”转向“集约提质”。新阶段园区转型不再是简单配套升级，而是通过空间再造、业态更新、环境优化，深度融入区域发展格局，推动园区向产城融合、功能复合方向转型。 园区运营从“传统管理”转向“服务赋能”。企业对园区的需求已升级为对产业生态、创新环境、人才资源等多元化、高价值服务的需求。适应这一变革，园区需加快构建企业全生命周期服务体系，推行靠前服务、精准服务、增值服务，以优质服务和良好生态集聚优质主体、构筑长效优势，实现“留得住、发展好”的局面。
B | 路径：以三维协同构建高质量发展新范式 立足“十五五”新起点，园区“再创业”需构建三维协同发展体系，以产业创新为核心、空间创新为载体、制度创新为保障，形成逻辑贯通、务实高效的高质量发展新范式。 以产业创新拓展赛道增量。立足本土资源禀赋与产业基底，坚持分类施策、错位布局，构建梯度递进的产业培育体系，走差异化与特色化发展之路。 推动传统产业“老树发新芽”。资源型园区与重工业园区以资源高效转化为核心，推动传统资源产业向下游精深加工、高附加值环节延伸，发展循环经济与绿色制造，引导煤炭、冶金、化工等传统产业向新材料、节能环保领域跨界升级，将资源存量优势转化为产业升级动能，打造具有区域辨识度的特色产业集群。 推动战略性新兴产业“新苗扎深根”。具备成熟产业基础与配套体系的园区，依托现有产业链配套能力，精准锚定新能源、高端装备、生物医药等战略性新兴产业领域的细分赛道，集中要素资源补强关键环节，打造专业化、精细化的新兴产业集群，以细分领域深耕构筑核心竞争优势。 推动未来产业“育苗抢先机”。
C | 科研资源富集与开放优势突出的园区，可依托高校院所、科创平台与区位优势，重点培育合成生物、深海经济、量子信息等前沿赛道，构建技术研发—成果转化—场景落地的全链条生态，打造未来产业先导区，抢占中长期产业发展制高点。 以空间创新重构功能形态。聚焦存量空间再开发与功能重塑，推动园区空间从规模扩张向内涵提升转变、从单一生产功能向创新生态载体转变、从物理空间出租向价值运营转变，走空间重塑与内涵发展之路。 推动空间形态“存量焕新”。全面摸排园区低效用地、闲置厂房与零散地块，分类实施有机更新与轻量化改造。
D | 顺应不同产业对空间层高、荷载、排污的差异化需求，建设可分割、可组合、可扩展的弹性产业空间。通过功能转换、容积率提升等路径，探索工业上楼、复合用地等模式，推动产业载体向适配化、集约化、复合化升级。 推动空间功能“复合聚势”。
E | 打破“工厂围墙”式单一生产布局，融入研发中试、共享实验、路演展示等创新功能，嵌入创新沙龙、休闲步道等社交场景，完善人才公寓、便民商业、托育医疗等生活配套，形成办公研发、社交互动、生活服务一体融合的创新社区，实现产城从“物理相邻”到“化学相融”的深层耦合。 推动空间运营“价值跃迁”。引入“租金+服务+股权”等多元盈利模式，拓展技术服务、活动运营、品牌输出等增值业务，推动园区从物理空间出租方向创新生态运营方升级。探索以空间运营串联产业链与创新链，将园区空间转化为产业会客厅、路演中心等常态化对接场景，同步布局光伏储能、数字孪生等绿色智慧配套，实现从空间出租向场景赋能、价值运营转变。 以服务创新提升发展效能。聚焦科技成果转化、产业培育与要素配置等环节，建立全链条产业创新组织体系，推动从“管理”向“运营”转型，走治理提效与服务破壁之路。 推动园区治理“管运分离”。加快构建“管委会+平台公司”模式，厘清管委会的规划编制、行政审批与公共服务职能，推动平台公司向产业投资运营商、要素配置服务商转型，以市场化机制承接园区开发建设、产业投资和资产运营。探索建立由龙头企业、第三方专业服务机构共同参与的产业治理委员会，推动园区治理向“多元共治”转变。 推动要素配置“效率优先”。在园区自主管理的产业基金中，探索建立以长期价值为核心的容错考核体系，设置合理的风险容忍度，完善存量用地提质增效机制，探索低效用地回购、置换与联合开发路径，确保好项目不缺空间、好企业不缺资源。 推动产业服务“全链贯通”。
F | 围绕企业全生命周期需求，构建梯度化、精准化的创新服务体系。初创期聚焦“资金+技术”，推行职务科技成果赋权与“先使用后付费”改革，试点“沙盒监管”与观察期管理，设立种子天使基金、开放共享研发仪器与中试配套，降低技术起步门槛。成长期聚焦“场景+市场”，探索开放园区应用场景，定期发布产业需求清单，常态化组织供需对接与品牌推介，推动新技术新产品首试首用、加速市场化进程。成熟期聚焦“资本+生态”，完善上市培育、并购贷款等金融工具，支持成熟期企业发挥引领作用，构建产业链协同创新生态，牵头开展标准共建，组建创新联合体，承接重大科技专项，壮大技术经理人队伍，推动创新要素在产业链内高效流动、循环增值。
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